Former Israeli Intelligence Officer Reveals Why October 7th Warning Signs Were Missed

JERUSALEM, Israel – After decades of studying Palestinian culture, a former military intelligence officer believes he knows why Israel missed warning signs pointing to the October 7th, 2023, massacre. He wrote a book called The Only Jew in the Room to help keep that from happening again. 

For 24 years in Israel's military intelligence, Lieutenant Colonel Avi Shalev closely observed the daily life of Palestinian society. After retiring, Shalev continued his education by enrolling in an Arab Islamic college.

Shalev told CBN News, "I learned how much I do not know about our neighbors."

He first wrote his thoughts about the college experience in a diary, which he later published as his book.

"I was the first Jewish student ever to have registered to this college," he explained.

Shalev notes that his presence in an Arab school was in stark contrast with the number of Arab students in Israeli schools. "Thousands of Arab Israelis (are) studying (in) Israeli universities in Hebrew," he said.

His time at the Arab college helped Shalev conclude that, while Israel's intelligence services had plenty of high-tech information, they lacked understanding.

"When you come to assess your neighbors, okay, you need a lot of Intel, but you also have to understand and assess this Intel. And if you don't understand the mentality – the culture, the language, the religion, the narrative, the history of your neighbors – you'll find it very difficult to actually understand the intelligence that you have," Shalev remarked.

He says Israel completely misread Hamas.

"We know today that the IDF had the plan of 7th of October," Shalev observed. "It got many warning signs, and it misread them. And, you know, the head of intelligence, Halevi, said that even if somebody had told him on the 6th of October that this is going to happen, he says, I would have dismissed him."

Instead of hiding its intent, Shalelv says Hamas broadcast it on Palestinian television. 

"Two years prior to the attack, Hamas published a TV series," he explained. Called "The Fist of the Free," it was viewed by millions of Arabs.

"And on the 30th episode is the (forecast for the) 7th of October; the attack on Israel. In May 2022, Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas, was saying, 'This is exactly what we are going to do, and we're going to realize everything that you saw on the TV series, in reality.'"

The program portrayed Palestinians who were working with Israelis as traitors. "Anybody who's invested in doing business and having relationships with Jews is a real villain," Shalev said of the Palestinian producers' thinking.

And yet, Israel continued to increase work permits for Gazans, hoping jobs and money would result in peace. Instead of gratitude, Shalev says Hamas showed contempt.

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He described the Palestinian attitude as, "We hate doing business with the Jews. We hate being related to them. We hate sending our kids to their hospitals."

Before October 7th, 2023, 17,000 work permits had been issued to Gazans to work in Israel. Shalev indicated that Israel's intelligence people never dreamed the workers would want to jeopardize this opportunity.

"They would never go and sacrifice everything they have because that doesn't make sense in our world. But Palestinians in Gaza, especially Hamas, was not thinking of that. It had a vision. It was thinking in religious Islamic narratives," Shalev insisted.

The terrorists then targeted those Israelis most committed to making peace with Arabs.

"Hamas attacked the most left-wing, liberal, progressive communities on the border who really made, you know – went out of their way – to assist Gazans," he said.

Shalev sees the heart of this failure being a cultural collision.

"Israel is a far more modern society, (an) individualistic society, with a locus of control that is internal. So we internalize. We, in our minds, we think that we can change the world and we can be effective," Shalev contended.

He continued, "The Arab is a very traditional, religious, Islamic, tribal society. They take their (cues) from the group. They are not analyzing the situation, so it doesn't really matter for them if it's true or false. If the context is favorable for the group, they're with it, and they're completely identified with the group policy or idea."

Shalev warns that unless Israel can bridge this cultural chasm, it will remain vulnerable.

He concluded, "I think following the 7th of October, Israel will change, especially in the military and the intelligence community, the way it trains its cadets, its officers, because we really need to understand Arabs – better understand the way they're thinking and they're seeing us."